Despite whatever click-bait headlines you’re seeing on Fox News, and the predictable rage of the rage-aholics, it’s been reported by the Wall Street Journal that Republicans and Democrats have basically reached a debt deal. Credit the skillful negotiations of Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the fumbling negotiations of President Joe Biden.
Odd that the author goes through an entire post explaining that Biden lost but never explains the deal or the details. We’ll just have to take his word for it. Not.
I can’t decide which disturbs me more: that you actually wrote this, Mr. Beaton, or that it was a Power Line Pick (which is how I ended up here).
Biden is a reprobate and moron – while true – is not an argument that he “lost the debt negotiations.” The “click-bait headlines” I’ve been seeing are actually Tweets and comprehensive Twitter threads I’ve been READING – from sober conservatives such as Chip Roy, Russ Vought, Daniel Horowitz, David Stockman, Andy Roth, Dan Bishop, and even (the overrated) Ted Cruz (plus others).
Based on reports I’ve READ, it is likely that 100% of Democrats will vote yay for McCarthy’s concession. This alone will prove the speciousness of your shallow “analysis.”
Put down the bong and your Rockin' Rapids Vintner's Reserve (or whatever intoxicant or meditation has sapped your senses). This fairy tale you’ve written says way more about you, Sir, than it does about the debt-ceiling debacle in progress. Maybe in your next feel-good post you can explain to us why we on the Right should support Republicons.
P.S. I was introduced to you when you were a Power Line Pick July 2022. As a Colorado native and 50+ year resident, I was particularly interested. I really dug in and enjoyed the reads (and have read you on occasion since). But what I’ve read here today from you is bewildering. If your intent was to propagandize, persuade, and/or enlighten me, you not only failed, but you discredited yourself in my eyes. Color me disappointed and dubious, though I bear you no ill will. I won’t let the door hit me in my hiney on my way out.
Yeah, I call BS. The swamp, the State, whatever you want ro call it, they won. McCarthy promised to pull back the $80 BILLION for the IRS, and paired it back to what, $78. something? The GOP are the weakest bunch of spineless wimps that I've ever seen- other than the last 40 yrs of GOP leaders that I was old enough to witness. The majority of the country believes in what they promise on the campaign trail, but the minute they hit DC, they start worrying about what people who don't like them anyways are going to say. Does no one have any courage, anymore?
Today's comments reflect the desperate state of affairs in which we find ourselves. In my opinion, the proposed budget contains enough cosmetic reductions to allow for McCarthy to declare victory while generally continuing the disastrous fiscal direction we have taken since the 1970's. People, myself included know that half measures will not suffice to prevent soon collapse, and the McCarthy budget is not even close to half. Thus, I can sympathize with the vitriol, although it is misdirected against Our Gracious Host. We are frustrated because we clearly see the enemy but it seems that our Republican representatives either cannot or will not engage in combat, always preferring to undertake strategic retreat. With each "compromise" we ratchet further left and deeper in debt.
I wouldn't say it was a victory, but it wasn't a defeat, also. There was never a chance that genuine fiscal sanity would come out of this high-stakes negotiation. Had McCarthy held out for the actual bill passed by the House, Biden would've just allowed the shut-down to take place, knowing from history (the 95-96 shutdown during which Newt Gingrich overplayed his hand) that public opinion would pretty much instantly swing from sympathetic to the R point of view to hating on the R. There is a solid 30% of the country that would laugh at a government shutdown for the purpose of serious fiscal reform -- or just screwing over Biden -- but the other 70%, no. They will be furious at whoever they think is the last one to fail to be reasonable, and it's not reasonable to expect the President *and* Senate to sign onto the House bill simpliciter. It would never happen, and that 70% knows it. It would've been fatal for McCarthy to try for the brass ring, the only result would've been to blow R prospects of taking back both houses in 2024 (currently looking not bad at all).
So he didn't get much in terms of immediate fiscal impact -- certainly not a return to sanity. But he *did* get a few concessions here and there, and that may be the real win. He was able to persuade Democratic leadership, and Joe Biden, slow as he is, that he actually holds a few aces, and they actually do have to meet him at some distance away from where they want to be. That's....a start. Given his very thin majority, and the fact that the Ds hold the Senate, this is something. Next time McCarthy tries to win something, the Ds will have a greater respect, they know he can at least sometimes carry his caucus, and he isn't completely intransigent. How much is that worth? Maybe very little, maybe more than we think. It's very hard to know.
I'm also intrigued by the offhand statement that the student loan repayments are defintely coming off pause. That and the sure demise of the forgiveness program at the hands of SCOTUS means Biden's shameless attempt to buy the twentysomething vote isn't going anywhere, which is good news both financially and politically. Maybe there are some other hidden mines in there that McCarthy laid. He was negotiating with mindless slogan-spewing robots, after all, maybe he managed to slip in a few poison pills we don't know about yet. That would be great, although I'm not holding my breath.
In short, I think you pretty significantly overstate the case here. This was by no means a victory. At best it falls under the Churchillian observation of maybe being the end of the beginning. But on the other hand, the people turning away in disgust are (1) insufficiently numerous to change elections, so their opinion by itself is of no great interest, and (2) forgetting that politics is the art of the possible, and attempting the impossible and delusional is just a way to end up a powerless minority (see point 1).
From a conservative POV it’s a very imperfect bill … and it’s gonna taste a lot like a crap sandwich. I wanted to see all $80 some billion for a new army of IRS agents, slated for conducting mass financial colonoscopies on the American public, to be completely clawed back. Apparently only about 2% is getting cut.
I largely blame the dozen or so Senate RINOs who made this IRS monstrosity possible, with that “bi-partisan” crony Omnibus bill that was passed last December, under the cover of Christmas, while the Democrats still controlled both Houses of Congress.
I’m at least glad to see that much of the unspent COVID funds will likely get clawed back. Also, there will likely be some work requirements attached to welfare, and lots of entitled and whiney college grads with degrees in CRT and DEI fields will have to start paying down the loans on their garbage degrees in 60 days or so.
If it sounds like I’m hedging … well, yeah, I am. Never, EVER trust anything coming out of Washington, D.C., especially if it has bi-partisan agreement. Bi-partisan agreement just means that Americans are getting screwed by both parties.
Speaker McCarthy seems to be playing the best hand he can, which ain’t much.
Before the GOP took over the House in early January, the Democrat driven economy was speeding on an autobahn highway towards the cliff at 120 mph. Now with the GOP in control of the House, the economy is still heading towards the cliff, albeit at a slower and more leisurely 50 mph.
But … it’s most likely the best conservatives can expect with a slim House majority, only 49 GOP Senators, and a corrupt and decrepit dim-witted Dem in the White House.
So it looks like it’s gonna be a fancy crap sandwich … bon appétit America.
If this is a victory, then we don't need any more victories.
Biden lost? He gave up some small amounts of spending that matter not at all. He won an increase in the debt limit when, what we have now is an effective balanced budget amendment in the form of a debt limit. We gave up something effective for no reason at all.
What were the final terms of the agreement? Did not the democrats effectively keep all of their 7 trillion in tax increases and blunderbuss spending? Not negotiating and blaming the other guy is an ancient political tactic. How was Biden beat?
I am betting that the only interest rates that matter(T-Bill auctions not FedFunds) will continue higher as a result of this deal becoming law. Treasury Bill auctions just surged through the 2005 highs to reach 5.7% (see Thursday's Financial Times on page 9). I assume the main T-Bill buyers- increasingly the money market funds- will make the capitalistic connection of increasing their profits by squeezing the desperate Treasury for more (6%, 7%, 8%...). The resulting bloated Federal deficit interest rate projections for the next fiscal year coming up puts power back in the hands of the GOP House to pass budget cuts both big and GOP friendly. (How about a 50% budget cut for FBI, CIA, EPA, IRS- for starters)
'The Aspen Beat', as in Hunter S Thompson? One must have serious connections to get a piece like this on RCP, and the author bemoans the biased (media) left. OK, so you don't like Biden... That's nice, but what's wrong with hair plugs? Maybe next time lay off the emotional gas pedal and throw some numbers up. Slander is slander. You should be able to articulate your point without making it so personal. Again, how did this piece get on the top line at RCP? Obviously you have connections to the media arena you despise. Two steps forward, three back... attack, attack, attack!!! Seems redundant.
Odd that the author goes through an entire post explaining that Biden lost but never explains the deal or the details. We’ll just have to take his word for it. Not.
I can’t decide which disturbs me more: that you actually wrote this, Mr. Beaton, or that it was a Power Line Pick (which is how I ended up here).
Biden is a reprobate and moron – while true – is not an argument that he “lost the debt negotiations.” The “click-bait headlines” I’ve been seeing are actually Tweets and comprehensive Twitter threads I’ve been READING – from sober conservatives such as Chip Roy, Russ Vought, Daniel Horowitz, David Stockman, Andy Roth, Dan Bishop, and even (the overrated) Ted Cruz (plus others).
Based on reports I’ve READ, it is likely that 100% of Democrats will vote yay for McCarthy’s concession. This alone will prove the speciousness of your shallow “analysis.”
Put down the bong and your Rockin' Rapids Vintner's Reserve (or whatever intoxicant or meditation has sapped your senses). This fairy tale you’ve written says way more about you, Sir, than it does about the debt-ceiling debacle in progress. Maybe in your next feel-good post you can explain to us why we on the Right should support Republicons.
P.S. I was introduced to you when you were a Power Line Pick July 2022. As a Colorado native and 50+ year resident, I was particularly interested. I really dug in and enjoyed the reads (and have read you on occasion since). But what I’ve read here today from you is bewildering. If your intent was to propagandize, persuade, and/or enlighten me, you not only failed, but you discredited yourself in my eyes. Color me disappointed and dubious, though I bear you no ill will. I won’t let the door hit me in my hiney on my way out.
Yeah, I call BS. The swamp, the State, whatever you want ro call it, they won. McCarthy promised to pull back the $80 BILLION for the IRS, and paired it back to what, $78. something? The GOP are the weakest bunch of spineless wimps that I've ever seen- other than the last 40 yrs of GOP leaders that I was old enough to witness. The majority of the country believes in what they promise on the campaign trail, but the minute they hit DC, they start worrying about what people who don't like them anyways are going to say. Does no one have any courage, anymore?
Today's comments reflect the desperate state of affairs in which we find ourselves. In my opinion, the proposed budget contains enough cosmetic reductions to allow for McCarthy to declare victory while generally continuing the disastrous fiscal direction we have taken since the 1970's. People, myself included know that half measures will not suffice to prevent soon collapse, and the McCarthy budget is not even close to half. Thus, I can sympathize with the vitriol, although it is misdirected against Our Gracious Host. We are frustrated because we clearly see the enemy but it seems that our Republican representatives either cannot or will not engage in combat, always preferring to undertake strategic retreat. With each "compromise" we ratchet further left and deeper in debt.
I’m with jittery fingers. Deck chairs on the Titanic. It does’t look like we’re voting our way out. Will the sinking be slow or sudden?
Nothing new here about Joe Biden. Lazy. Irresponsible. Nasty. Stupid. All just Joe being Joe.
I wouldn't say it was a victory, but it wasn't a defeat, also. There was never a chance that genuine fiscal sanity would come out of this high-stakes negotiation. Had McCarthy held out for the actual bill passed by the House, Biden would've just allowed the shut-down to take place, knowing from history (the 95-96 shutdown during which Newt Gingrich overplayed his hand) that public opinion would pretty much instantly swing from sympathetic to the R point of view to hating on the R. There is a solid 30% of the country that would laugh at a government shutdown for the purpose of serious fiscal reform -- or just screwing over Biden -- but the other 70%, no. They will be furious at whoever they think is the last one to fail to be reasonable, and it's not reasonable to expect the President *and* Senate to sign onto the House bill simpliciter. It would never happen, and that 70% knows it. It would've been fatal for McCarthy to try for the brass ring, the only result would've been to blow R prospects of taking back both houses in 2024 (currently looking not bad at all).
So he didn't get much in terms of immediate fiscal impact -- certainly not a return to sanity. But he *did* get a few concessions here and there, and that may be the real win. He was able to persuade Democratic leadership, and Joe Biden, slow as he is, that he actually holds a few aces, and they actually do have to meet him at some distance away from where they want to be. That's....a start. Given his very thin majority, and the fact that the Ds hold the Senate, this is something. Next time McCarthy tries to win something, the Ds will have a greater respect, they know he can at least sometimes carry his caucus, and he isn't completely intransigent. How much is that worth? Maybe very little, maybe more than we think. It's very hard to know.
I'm also intrigued by the offhand statement that the student loan repayments are defintely coming off pause. That and the sure demise of the forgiveness program at the hands of SCOTUS means Biden's shameless attempt to buy the twentysomething vote isn't going anywhere, which is good news both financially and politically. Maybe there are some other hidden mines in there that McCarthy laid. He was negotiating with mindless slogan-spewing robots, after all, maybe he managed to slip in a few poison pills we don't know about yet. That would be great, although I'm not holding my breath.
In short, I think you pretty significantly overstate the case here. This was by no means a victory. At best it falls under the Churchillian observation of maybe being the end of the beginning. But on the other hand, the people turning away in disgust are (1) insufficiently numerous to change elections, so their opinion by itself is of no great interest, and (2) forgetting that politics is the art of the possible, and attempting the impossible and delusional is just a way to end up a powerless minority (see point 1).
Sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand. Just not this time.
Were you the same guy who said the Edsel was going to be a huge success?
From a conservative POV it’s a very imperfect bill … and it’s gonna taste a lot like a crap sandwich. I wanted to see all $80 some billion for a new army of IRS agents, slated for conducting mass financial colonoscopies on the American public, to be completely clawed back. Apparently only about 2% is getting cut.
I largely blame the dozen or so Senate RINOs who made this IRS monstrosity possible, with that “bi-partisan” crony Omnibus bill that was passed last December, under the cover of Christmas, while the Democrats still controlled both Houses of Congress.
I’m at least glad to see that much of the unspent COVID funds will likely get clawed back. Also, there will likely be some work requirements attached to welfare, and lots of entitled and whiney college grads with degrees in CRT and DEI fields will have to start paying down the loans on their garbage degrees in 60 days or so.
If it sounds like I’m hedging … well, yeah, I am. Never, EVER trust anything coming out of Washington, D.C., especially if it has bi-partisan agreement. Bi-partisan agreement just means that Americans are getting screwed by both parties.
Speaker McCarthy seems to be playing the best hand he can, which ain’t much.
Before the GOP took over the House in early January, the Democrat driven economy was speeding on an autobahn highway towards the cliff at 120 mph. Now with the GOP in control of the House, the economy is still heading towards the cliff, albeit at a slower and more leisurely 50 mph.
But … it’s most likely the best conservatives can expect with a slim House majority, only 49 GOP Senators, and a corrupt and decrepit dim-witted Dem in the White House.
So it looks like it’s gonna be a fancy crap sandwich … bon appétit America.
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/southpark/images/4/4b/Turd-sandwich.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/310?cb=20191104215547
the entire world is drunk on counterfeiting. the world's economy is basically addicted to theft.
40% on vacation? You're being kind.
Loved your book on Aspen, "High Attitude!".
If this is a victory, then we don't need any more victories.
Biden lost? He gave up some small amounts of spending that matter not at all. He won an increase in the debt limit when, what we have now is an effective balanced budget amendment in the form of a debt limit. We gave up something effective for no reason at all.
Biden won.
What were the final terms of the agreement? Did not the democrats effectively keep all of their 7 trillion in tax increases and blunderbuss spending? Not negotiating and blaming the other guy is an ancient political tactic. How was Biden beat?
I am betting that the only interest rates that matter(T-Bill auctions not FedFunds) will continue higher as a result of this deal becoming law. Treasury Bill auctions just surged through the 2005 highs to reach 5.7% (see Thursday's Financial Times on page 9). I assume the main T-Bill buyers- increasingly the money market funds- will make the capitalistic connection of increasing their profits by squeezing the desperate Treasury for more (6%, 7%, 8%...). The resulting bloated Federal deficit interest rate projections for the next fiscal year coming up puts power back in the hands of the GOP House to pass budget cuts both big and GOP friendly. (How about a 50% budget cut for FBI, CIA, EPA, IRS- for starters)
'The Aspen Beat', as in Hunter S Thompson? One must have serious connections to get a piece like this on RCP, and the author bemoans the biased (media) left. OK, so you don't like Biden... That's nice, but what's wrong with hair plugs? Maybe next time lay off the emotional gas pedal and throw some numbers up. Slander is slander. You should be able to articulate your point without making it so personal. Again, how did this piece get on the top line at RCP? Obviously you have connections to the media arena you despise. Two steps forward, three back... attack, attack, attack!!! Seems redundant.